| 摘要: |
| 利用1999~2007年中国工业企业数据库中的在华跨国公司数据，对跨国公司进行潜在分类，采用负二项回归和有限混合模型，首次估算出了利润可转移跨国公司和利润不可转移跨国公司的比重及投资税收弹性。结果发现，在华跨国公司中，利润可转移跨国公司所占比重大约为25%，利润不可转移跨国公司大约为75%；利润不可转移公司的投资税收弹性较大，且显著高于利润可转移公司的投资税收弹性。税率每上升1%，将导致利润不可转移跨国公司的投资下降2.16%，但仅导致利润可转移跨国公司的投资下降0.39%。本文还考察了企业异质性和行业异质性对跨国公司利润转移和投资税收弹性的影响。本文的研究能够为防止税基侵蚀和利润转移的实践提供明确具体的政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 跨国公司 利润转移 投资税收弹性 有限混合模型 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:71173238、71473272)、教育部新世纪创新人才支持计划(项目编号:NCET-111-0746)和中南财经政法大学青年教师创新项目(项目编号:2014022)。 |
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| Profit Shifting and Tax Elasticity of MNCs in China |
| QIAN Xue-feng,CHEN Chao |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper discusses the unobserved profit shifting and tax responsiveness of multinational firms in China. Using the CASIF data in 1999~2007 and distinguishing shifting firms from non-shifting firms, this paper estimates firstly the share of shifters and non-shifters and their tax elasticity through the negative binary and finite mixture modeling approach. The results show that about 25% of the affiliates are estimated to be able to shift profits and about 75% not. The tax elasticity of non-shifter is much higher than shifter’s, a 1% increase in the statutory corporate profit tax rate of China is found to reduce the fixed assets of non-shifters in that host country by 2.16% on average, but only by 0.39% for shifters. Moreover, this paper also investigates the heterogeneous effect at firm and industry level. |
| Key words: MNCs profit shifting tax elasticity finite mixed model |
