| 摘要: |
| 《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）已于 2022年 1月 1日正式生效，印度是否永久性退出 RCEP尚不可知，若在 RCEP效果凸显后再度重返，则其国内贸易损益计算依据以及将对成员带来何种宏观经济层面的影响无疑是个值得关注的问题。本文利用 GTAP模型对印度是否加入 RCEP不同情形之贸易损益进行了模拟验证，结果表明，RCEP生效后各成员的国家总福利水平及总产出水平都将高于生效前，与印度的成员身份并无必然关联，但印度的 RCEP局外人身份将对其进出口总额的增长产生负面影响；若印度重返 RCEP则不仅对本国进出口贸易额增长发挥正向拉动作用，还会为其他成员带来更大的贸易增长效应；印度加入 RCEP也的确存在一定程度的对外贸易逆差增大风险。为此，展望印度加入 RCEP的前景，可以做出以下预判和启示：印度可能适时选择重新加入 RCEP而非永久退出；印度重返 RCEP可为中国经济发展带来新动力；中国应积极运用外交和经济渠道促使印度尽早重返RCEP，为中印双方未来的经济增长创造更好条件。 |
| 关键词: 印度 RCEP 贸易损益 GTAP模型中图分类号:F744 文献标识码:A文章编号:1006-1894(2024)02-0051-14 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Simulation Study of RCEP Trade Gains and Losses from Indian Perspective: An Empirical Analysis Based on GTAP Model |
| WEI Jingfu,LI Mingzhe |
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| Abstract: |
| Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), officially entered into force on January 1st, 2022. It remains to be seen whether India’s withdrawal from RCEP is permanent, but if it returns after the effects of RCEP have gradually become evident, the basis for calculating its domestic trade gains and losses as well as the implications for member countries at the macroeconomic level is undoubtedly a matter of concern. This paper uses the GTAP model to simulate India’s trade gains and losses under different scenarios whether it joins or does not join RCEP. The results show that the level of total national welfare and total output of each member country will be higher after the RCEP agreement enters into force, regardless of India’s membership. But India’s withdrawal from the RCEP will have a negative impact on the growth of its total exports and imports. If India returns to RCEP, it will not only have a positive pulling impact on the growth of its own export and import trade, but will also have a greater trade growth effect on the other members of the agreement. In addition, India's accession to the RCEP does also carry a certain degree of risk of increasing the external trade deficit. In this regard, looking forward to the prospect of India’s accession to the RCEP, the following predictions and insights can be drawn: India may choose to rejoin the RCEP agreement at the appropriate time course rather than withdrawing permanently; India’s return to RCEP could bring new impetus to China’s economic development; China should actively use diplomatic and economic sources to urge India to return to the RCEP agreement as soon as possible, so as to create better conditions for economic growth for both China and India in the future. |
| Key words: India RCEP trade profit and loss GTAP model |
