| 摘要: |
| 本文运用经济增长核算方法对中国各省 1992~2022年的增长来源进行分解，发现中国区域人均 GDP差距在缩小，这种收敛主要是人力资本差距缩小和全要素生产率差距缩小造成的。劳动力占比变化和资本投入差距的影响并不显著。基于各生产要素和生产力的跨国比较，本文发现中国已经从资本缺乏阶段走向资本富余阶段，资本回报率显著降低。和同阶段发展中经济体和发达经济体的比较表明中国人力资本和全要素生产率还有较大的提升空间。本文基于国际贸易数据反推得到出口隐含生产力，发现人均 GDP还有向出口隐含生产力收敛的潜力。最后，本文基于上述发现认为，中国经济增长的潜力主要在于：提高受教育水平和教育质量；推动产业升级，向出口复杂度高的产品和服务转型；降低国内贸易壁垒。 |
| 关键词: 区域协调发展 全要素生产率 经济增长潜力 资本回报率中图分类号:F061.2/F124 文献标识码:A文章编号:1006-1894(2024)02-0016-18 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家社科基金重大项目“大国竞争背景下关键领域产业链供应链重构的风险评估与对策研究”(项目编号:23&ZD046)；国家社科基金项目“新发展格局下数字经济驱动市场整合的机制与对策研究”(项目编号:22CJY065)；国家自然科学基金项目“贸易风险识别、对宏观经济影响评估与复杂联动”(项目编号:72341016)。 |
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| Coordinated Regional Development and Potential Growth of the Chinese Economy: A Perspective from International Comparison |
| XIE Chang,MA Hong |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper decomposes the growth sources of China’s provinces from 1992 to 2022 based on growth accounting method. We find that the gap between China’s regional GDP per capita is narrowing. This convergence is mainly caused by the narrowing of the gap in human capital and total factor productivity. The gaps in capital input and share of labor force have not converged. Based on the cross-country comparison of various production factors and productivity, we find that China has transitioned from a capital-deficient stage to a capital abundant stage, resulting in a significantly lower rate of return on capital. Comparison with developing and developed economies at the same stage shows that China’s human capital and total factor productivity still need to be improved. Based on international trade data, we infer the implied productivity of export value added, and find that GDP per capita has the potential to converge to the export-implied productivity. Finally, based on the above findings, we suggest that China’s potential for economic growth lie primarily in three areas: improving the level and quality of education, promoting industrial upgrading and shifting to products and services of high export complexity, and reducing domestic trade barriers. |
| Key words: coordinated regional development total factor productivity growth potential of economy return on capital |
