| 引用本文： |
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凌学岭,Chen Ling,王磊.中国高等教育服务进口影响因素的实证分析[J].国际商务研究,2015,(3):45-56 [点击复制]
- LING Xue-ling,Chen Ling,WANG Lei.中国高等教育服务进口影响因素的实证分析[J].INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RESEARCH,2015,(3):45-56 [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 本文利用统计学中变量选择法和模型选择法并依托R语言计算能力分别建立ARIMA模型和动态回归模型。由于对ARIMA模型进行了交叉验证，令人满意的预测结果表明，利用该模型进一步预测得到中国今后几年出国留学人数增长趋势将放缓的结论具有合理性。动态回归模型则对影响出国留学人数的主要因素之重要性进行度量，说明影响中国高等教育服务进口的主要因素按其重要性排序依次是国内就业压力、高校毕业生人数和人均可支配收入。进一步分析则说明中国高等教育行业在全球范围内竞争力不足是导致服务进口居高不下的最主要原因。 |
| 关键词: 高等教育服务贸易 影响因素 ARIMA模型 动态回归模型 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:中央财政支持地方高校发展专项资金省级重点学科建设项目“贸易大数据:处理分析和系统开发”(项目编号:YC-XK-13103)、全国统计科学研究计划项目“大数据下证券价格指数与宏观经济变量相关性研究”(重大项目编号:2013LZ39)。 |
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| An Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting China’s Import of Higher Education Services |
| LING Xue-ling,Chen Ling,WANG Lei |
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| Abstract: |
| The paper utilizes the statistical methods of variable selection and model selection, together with the computation power of language R, and builds the ARIMA model and dynamic regression model respectively, which is different from the commonly used modelling methods in econometrics. Since cross validation is also performed on the ARIMA prediction model, satisfactory results from the model have shown that it is reasonable to conclude that the growth rate of the number of Chinese high school graduates who will study aboard is going to slow down. The dynamic regression model quantifies to what extent the key factors are affecting the number of people studying aboard on the other hand, and ranks the factors affecting import of china’s higher education service in the following manner: employment opportunity, number of high school graduates, and average dispensable income. Further analysis reveals that the lack of global competitiveness of China’s higher education industry is the root cause for the import to remain high. |
| Key words: trade in higher education service influence factors ARIMA model dynamic regression model |
